BBC Reports: Child Diabetes Cases to Double

Yesterday the BBC reported:

The number of under-fives in Europe with type 1 diabetes is set to double between 2005 and 2020, say experts.

The BBC report is here. The original source for the BBC was The Lancet who published an early online edition (yesterday) of a multicentre prospective registration study on the increase in childhood (Type 1) diabetes.   In their summary statement the lancet reports:

The incidence of type 1 diabetes in children younger than 15 years is increasing. Prediction of future incidence of this disease will enable adequate fund allocation for delivery of care to be planned. We aimed to establish 15-year incidence trends for childhood type 1 diabetes in European centres, and thereby predict the future burden of childhood diabetes in Europe.

The study made the following interpretation:

If present trends continue, doubling of new cases of type 1 diabetes in European children younger than 5 years is predicted between 2005 and 2020, and prevalent cases younger than 15 years will rise by 70%. Adequate health-care resources to meet these children's needs should be made available.

No cause for the increase was cited, although modern lifestyle factored, and an increase in children born to older mothers, caesarean sections and reduced exposure to germs are all thought to be contributing factors.